CARazed

If you start reading my posts you might think I’m anti bio-diesel and ethanol. Actually I’m pretty much pro everything green. I simply think that plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are the best short term solution. PHEVs and bio -uels are also not mutually exclusive. Why couldn’t a flex fuel, bio-diesel, or even strait vegetable oil (SVO) engine be mounted in a PHEV?

The problem I see with bio-fuels is simply infrastructure, and a lack of it. I live near Sacramento, California’s state capital and right smack dab in the middle of one of the biggest agricultural centers in the world. You’d think there would be tons of gas stations offering bio-diesel, ethanol and E85. I’m sad to say that’s not the case. I know bizarre but a good example of the problem.

All around me are people who would adopt bio-fuel cars but there are few options for supporting such a vehicle in sight. I’m forced to conclude that if we want an immediate solution we have to accept the enormous wide spread availability of fossil fuels… but only for the short term while the bio-fuel infrastructure is built.

PHEVs represent a bridge to all electric cars which is where I think we need to go. Burning anything at the vehicle isn’t the most ideal long term goal. Burning hydrogen at the car is a second best but even that has draw backs. The vast majority of hydrogen production today comes from processing fossil fuel. If we move toward hydrogen fuel cells with the goal of satying off fossil fuels we must put in a hydrogen manufacturing infrastructure that uses electrolysis of water.

Electricity is also a major issue. About half of the electricity in the United States comes from burning coal, thanks to George W Bush and his coal lobby buddies. Before bush natural gas was the major fossil fuel used for generating electricity. So if Americans really want to kick the fossil fuel habit long term we need to get off this coal burned for electricity practice too.

So if it were up to me… ha ha… all auto makers would slow hydrogen fuel cell research for now, since it is so long term, and focus on building flex-fuel plug-in hybrids. Advancing battery technology would need to become the primary focus of research. Building a decentralized power grid that gets the vast majority of it’s power from renewable sources like wind and solar. For example if all our homes has a couple dozen photovoltaic panels on the roof all feeding power back to the grid, and our cars stored electricity at night, as PHEVs do, we’d be in far better shape. We’d also have a path laid out to a future filled with fun, fast and silent electric cars.

Bio-fuels in my mind will help us get there, and may play a role in generating electricity in the future, but PHEVs in the short term followed by a long term goal off all electric cars makes a whole lot more sense. Comments?

Co-op America is and CalCars are encouraging people to push auto makers to build plug-in hybrids and abandon the strong push for corn based bio-fuels. Most people find it hard to understand this position because it seems so counter intuitive. The same goes for declining support of hydrogen fuel cells which have the potential of water vapor exhaust.

All the technology ideas are good, the problem is time. The most viable technology today is plug-in hybrids. All electric cars, hydrogen fuel cell cars, bio-fuel cars are years away from wide spread consumer adoption for two simple reasons, infrastructure and technology.

To find a solution today we must accept our current infrastructure and technology options and see where they lead us. We have a gasoline infrastructure and decent but not great batteries. We have plugs in our homes and most of us don’t make long trips. Independent groups all over are proving that plug-in hybrid cars can get around 100 miles per gallon. If we all had a gas powered car that got 100 MPG with ultra low carbon emissions several things would happen:

1. We would need no imported fossil fuel. None. So there would be little need to invade anyone like Iraq for oil or Iran for natural gas.

2. Big oil company profits would drop to record lows because most people would drive on their batteries most of the time. These cars run on electricity for the first 40-ish miles so you’ll only pay for gas on long trips.
3. Even though 50% of our electricity comes from burning coal the carbon emissions end up being lower overall for electric cars than gasoline cars.

4. We’ve built a bridge to all electric cars. As soon as better inexpensive batteries are available we’ll buy newer plug-in hybrids that will run on electricity only for long trips.

I won’t speculate as to the real reasons big oil and auto makers have stayed away from plug-in hybrids.  The good news is that they are on the way. The small independent auto makers, backed by big silicon valley money, seem to have lit a fire. Toyota and GM have both released news that they plan to have plug-in hybrids on the road by 2010. The small start-ups will have cars out in 2008 and 2009.

If you are considering buying a new car in the next two years some say hold off. Wait and see what happens. If this movement to plug-in hybrids continues and 100 miles per gallon cars hit the market in two years the resale value on your current car may start to drop. It might be wise to not be married to a car payment if that happens. Comments?

In a recent article, on January 24, 2008, long time auto industry reporter Mark Phelan says,

“Bad Karma. Fisker Automotive says the sporty Karma will go on sale in 2009, cover 50 miles solely under electric power, recharge its batteries overnight, use a small engine to recharge on long drives and have a top speed “beyond 125 m.p.h.,” all for $80,000 apiece.

If anybody could do that, GM, Toyota and every other automaker on the planet would pay billions for the technology. I hate to pick on a guy with a dream, and Henrik Fisker’s design credentials are impeccable, but making promises like this without detailed technical support just encourages the conspiracy theorists who insist the auto industry is in league with Big Oil, terrorists, Satan or all of the above.”

I personally hope that all skeptics are proven wrong by the cars the independent start-ups put on the road. The truth is that no one will know how viable cars like the Fisker Karma will be until it has been on the road a while.

Statements like, “ If anybody could do that, GM, Toyota and every other automaker on the planet would pay billions for the technology.”, are as irrational as conspiracy theories because no one but auto industry senior executives know their product development strategies. For all we know auto makers see themselves in a symbiotic relationship with the oil industry and that it’s in the best interest of their company and shareholders to support each other.

In other words, it’s probably not a conspiracy but it might be a business plan. No really, literally a business plan. It’s not unbelievable that one company might want to see the long term viability of one of it’s strongest partners; and no one can argue that today’s cars and fossil fuel aren’t joined at the hip.

Maybe we’re watching the Battle of the Billionaires?

Money is the other thing at work he no one is talking about yet. The money that backs the independent auto makers is mostly coming from Silicon Valley billionaires, venture capitalists, philanthropist investors, and private equity groups. For the most part these people are not involved in the energy or main stream auto industry.

They seem to be capitalizing on the opportunity plug-in hybrids big auto missed by choosing the fuel cell route instead. I’ll leave it to the skeptics and conspiracy theorists to drone on as to why. I’m content to simply think that they have their reasons and it probably has to do with protecting their own business interests.

Luckily for us it looks like the competition the independent auto makers seem to be generating has been enough of a catalyst to move some major auto makers in plug-in hybrid direction. GM and Toyota are now moving in the direction of plug-in hybrids.

On January 23, 2008, the Chicago Tribune reports that,

“GM and Toyota also are fighting for global leadership in technology. Toyota forged ahead with its hybrid technology, but now GM is trying to beat Toyota to market with plug-in hybrid vehicles that can be recharged from household outlets. GM hopes to produce plug-in vehicles by 2010, and Toyota says it expects to have a test fleet of plug-ins on the road by then.”

Personally I can’t wait for 100 mpg cars and making all electric local errands. The cleaner air and peace will be nice too. Far less costly in dollars and blood. Comments?