CARazed

Hydrogen Fuel Cell technology is just not ready for main stream implementation, confirmed yet again by this Wall Street Journal article. Both GM and Toyota executives are turning away from their focus on fuel cells and toward readily available technologies like full electric cars and plug-in hybrids… also called range extended electric cars.

Since the driving range of full electric cars are limited by how much electricity their batteries can store and today’s batteries take hours to charge, auto makers are turning to mounting a small gasoline generator on board what would otherwise be a fully electric car. The first 40 or so mile you drive is 100% on battery power and then the gas motor kicks in to generate electricity and power the car. Since electric motors are high in torque the driving performance is comparable to a normal car. At night you simply plug the car in to top off the batteries. The electricity in your home is a far cheaper source of power than the gas generator can create. The overall carbon footprint is lower too.

GM hopes to launch the Chevy Volt by 2010 that leverages this technology. Toyota is also making strides in advancing their current technology to include plug in charging and longer range running on batteries only. If you’re considering a green car you might want to buy used for now and wait a couple years to see if GM, Toyota and others bring real plug-in hybrids to market. They would surely beat the current hybrids in efficiency at a similar price.

It seems the folks at tesla are thinking what many other are thinking, that plug-in hybrids are the way to go, at least for now. Now that production dates are set for their P1 Tesla Roadster, Tesla has announced that they are planning it’s next car, a sedan code named White Star.

They’ll offer an all electric version and a plug-in hybrid version. The advantage of course is that when your batteries run dry your car switches over and runs a small gas engine to keep you moving. Official news, facts and figures are not available yet. Most of what we know has been leaked through the Tesla blog, but it sounds like the sedan will cost about half as much as the P1 (so about $40K to $50K).

I’m not surprised that Tesla is moving toward hybrids because it just makes sense. Leverage the current gasoline infrastructure while moving toward all electric cars. Other companies like GM, Toyota, many X PRIXE contestants, and small independent auto makers are all moving in this direction. For example the Fisker Karma will be a plug-in hybrid that is expected to get around 100 miles per gallon. The White Star must be Tesla’s reaction to the Karma.

I have the feeling GM and the other big auto makers got the picture at the Detroit Auto show. It seems that GM has created a new group to focus on Hybrids, extended range electric vehicles and batteries. See this official announcement for details on the new group. GM has also released new that they will be showing off two new trucks at the upcoming Chicago Auto show.

Pictured is the Denali XT, a duel-mode hybrid gas-electric truck that can drive on batteries and/or a gasoline motor. Besides the fact that it looks like a Honda Ridgeline was accidentally let into the Chrysler 300 cage resulting in a strange genetic mutation, this new truck looks pretty cool. Strange but cool. The exact details and fuel economy ratings are not yet public but it will be built on a unibody subframe giving it car like handling like the Ridgeline. The engine will most likely be a v8 or 6 cylinder that can eat e85 or gasoline. GM is even playing with technologies that shut down 4 cylinders under light loads.

Amazing that on Feburary 1st they announce a new group to build cars and trucks like this and at the same time. Odd that these cars are revealed right after the independent, silicon valley backed, auto makers show real progress in electric and plug-in hybrids. Almost seems like maybe they had this technology in their back pocket and were simply waiting until they had a business reason, like a competitor, to announce their presence.

But I digress into conspiracy theories… back to reality… because this is great news, no matter the catalysts for this sudden change. To see the big auto makers announcing advanced hybrids is wonderful news. It would be even better if they could also be plugged in, but I suspect any car or truck that has enough battery power on board to sustain a few dozen miles of travel on electricity could easily be converted to be a plug in hybrid.

As details of these new GM vehicles is available I’ll post more.  This is also more reason to wait to buy a new car until 2010 or so, when you’ll be able to buy a 100 MPG car and now maybe a truck too. We’ll see, but the evidence is mounting that this will come true.

Co-op America is and CalCars are encouraging people to push auto makers to build plug-in hybrids and abandon the strong push for corn based bio-fuels. Most people find it hard to understand this position because it seems so counter intuitive. The same goes for declining support of hydrogen fuel cells which have the potential of water vapor exhaust.

All the technology ideas are good, the problem is time. The most viable technology today is plug-in hybrids. All electric cars, hydrogen fuel cell cars, bio-fuel cars are years away from wide spread consumer adoption for two simple reasons, infrastructure and technology.

To find a solution today we must accept our current infrastructure and technology options and see where they lead us. We have a gasoline infrastructure and decent but not great batteries. We have plugs in our homes and most of us don’t make long trips. Independent groups all over are proving that plug-in hybrid cars can get around 100 miles per gallon. If we all had a gas powered car that got 100 MPG with ultra low carbon emissions several things would happen:

1. We would need no imported fossil fuel. None. So there would be little need to invade anyone like Iraq for oil or Iran for natural gas.

2. Big oil company profits would drop to record lows because most people would drive on their batteries most of the time. These cars run on electricity for the first 40-ish miles so you’ll only pay for gas on long trips.
3. Even though 50% of our electricity comes from burning coal the carbon emissions end up being lower overall for electric cars than gasoline cars.

4. We’ve built a bridge to all electric cars. As soon as better inexpensive batteries are available we’ll buy newer plug-in hybrids that will run on electricity only for long trips.

I won’t speculate as to the real reasons big oil and auto makers have stayed away from plug-in hybrids.  The good news is that they are on the way. The small independent auto makers, backed by big silicon valley money, seem to have lit a fire. Toyota and GM have both released news that they plan to have plug-in hybrids on the road by 2010. The small start-ups will have cars out in 2008 and 2009.

If you are considering buying a new car in the next two years some say hold off. Wait and see what happens. If this movement to plug-in hybrids continues and 100 miles per gallon cars hit the market in two years the resale value on your current car may start to drop. It might be wise to not be married to a car payment if that happens. Comments?

In a recent article, on January 24, 2008, long time auto industry reporter Mark Phelan says,

“Bad Karma. Fisker Automotive says the sporty Karma will go on sale in 2009, cover 50 miles solely under electric power, recharge its batteries overnight, use a small engine to recharge on long drives and have a top speed “beyond 125 m.p.h.,” all for $80,000 apiece.

If anybody could do that, GM, Toyota and every other automaker on the planet would pay billions for the technology. I hate to pick on a guy with a dream, and Henrik Fisker’s design credentials are impeccable, but making promises like this without detailed technical support just encourages the conspiracy theorists who insist the auto industry is in league with Big Oil, terrorists, Satan or all of the above.”

I personally hope that all skeptics are proven wrong by the cars the independent start-ups put on the road. The truth is that no one will know how viable cars like the Fisker Karma will be until it has been on the road a while.

Statements like, “ If anybody could do that, GM, Toyota and every other automaker on the planet would pay billions for the technology.”, are as irrational as conspiracy theories because no one but auto industry senior executives know their product development strategies. For all we know auto makers see themselves in a symbiotic relationship with the oil industry and that it’s in the best interest of their company and shareholders to support each other.

In other words, it’s probably not a conspiracy but it might be a business plan. No really, literally a business plan. It’s not unbelievable that one company might want to see the long term viability of one of it’s strongest partners; and no one can argue that today’s cars and fossil fuel aren’t joined at the hip.

Maybe we’re watching the Battle of the Billionaires?

Money is the other thing at work he no one is talking about yet. The money that backs the independent auto makers is mostly coming from Silicon Valley billionaires, venture capitalists, philanthropist investors, and private equity groups. For the most part these people are not involved in the energy or main stream auto industry.

They seem to be capitalizing on the opportunity plug-in hybrids big auto missed by choosing the fuel cell route instead. I’ll leave it to the skeptics and conspiracy theorists to drone on as to why. I’m content to simply think that they have their reasons and it probably has to do with protecting their own business interests.

Luckily for us it looks like the competition the independent auto makers seem to be generating has been enough of a catalyst to move some major auto makers in plug-in hybrid direction. GM and Toyota are now moving in the direction of plug-in hybrids.

On January 23, 2008, the Chicago Tribune reports that,

“GM and Toyota also are fighting for global leadership in technology. Toyota forged ahead with its hybrid technology, but now GM is trying to beat Toyota to market with plug-in hybrid vehicles that can be recharged from household outlets. GM hopes to produce plug-in vehicles by 2010, and Toyota says it expects to have a test fleet of plug-ins on the road by then.”

Personally I can’t wait for 100 mpg cars and making all electric local errands. The cleaner air and peace will be nice too. Far less costly in dollars and blood. Comments?

There are mixed messages coming from GM about the timing of when the Chevy Volt will hit the market. But 2010 looks likely. If you watched the movie Who Killed The Electric Car you’ve heard the theory that GM and the oil companies conspired to kill EV1. We’re not going to debate that either way but if GM delivers the Volt they might just make up for any bad blood those rumors and theories might have created.

From the press material the Volt sounds like the perfect transition vehicles, from the all fossil fuel world we live into today to the all electric zero emissions vehicles of the future. In a nutshell it’s a plug in hybrid with the ability to run full electric for about 40 miles and then rely on either a small generator or small engine to extend its range up to 640 miles. GM is also thinking of using E85 or biodiesel as fuels for the on-board combustion engines.

We can’t wait to see the car on the road. This would mark a significant step i the right direction for all auto manufacturers. Comments?